HMRC has recorded the busiest January for property transactions since 2022 but deals are down compared with the end of 2024.
The taxman registered 95,100 property sales last month on a seasonally-adjusted estimate, up 14% annually but down 1% on a monthly basis.
Meanwhile, its provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in January 2025 is 81,360, 21% higher than January 2024 and 17% lower than December 2024.
There is of course a delay in sales registered with HMRC so some of these sales could have been completed at least two months ago.
Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops, comments: “Momentum from the end of 2024 has carried into January, with transactions up 14% year on year. While January is typically a busy time in the market, as people use the Christmas period to plan for the year ahead, this trend has been amplified by the impending stamp duty land tax deadline, which is impacting market dynamics.
“Buyers who completed transactions this month will have breathed a sigh of relief, knowing that the new stamp duty land tax charges are set to take effect later this spring. With up to 74,000 buyers across England expected to miss the deadline next month, the pressure on the market is palpable.
“Across Jackson-Stops we observed a notable 25% increase in property listings in January compared to the previous year, ushering in the usual spring bounce ahead of schedule. Sellers are encouraged by the heightened activity in the market.
“Our offices in Chester, Cranbrook, Oxted, Truro, Dorking, and Woking have kicked off the new year with remarkable vigour. A stream of keen and committed buyers is outstripping even the most steadfast supply, highlighting the market’s dynamism that had been quietened since late-2022.
“However, completions now average 16 weeks. High interest rates have driven many buyers to move out of necessity rather than opportunity, imposing tight deadlines that are exacerbated by lengthy transactions. The impending drop in the stamp duty threshold will only add to the backlog, as buyers rush to meet fixed deadlines.”
Richard Donnell, Executive Director at Zoopla, said: “Property transactions have rebounded on increased market activity and a return to house price growth over 2024. This momentum is spilling over into 2025 as shown by the latest transactions data for January 2025 up 23% on 2024. Property transactions will continue to increase as Zoopla’s leading indicators of market activity are 10 to 11% higher than a year ago.
“Residential transactions are expected to be 5% higher over 2025 reaching 1.15m. There is an extra surge of sales working their way through the pipeline as buyers rush to beat the Stamp Duty deadline in a months’ time with extra pressure on the conveyancing industry to deliver for home buyers.
Iain McKenzie, chief executive of The Guild of Property Professionals, added: “The property market started 2025 on a strong note, with January’s year-on-year increase in transactions reflecting the momentum carried over from late 2024. The upcoming Stamp Duty changes in March have encouraged many buyers to act sooner, adding to the early-year surge in activity.
“With February and March historically being the best months to list a home, and data showing they lead to the highest completion rates, sellers have a prime opportunity to capitalise on heightened demand. Additionally, while higher-than-expected inflation may pump the brakes on the pace of interest rate cuts, expectations of lower rates later this year should further support buyer confidence.
“Despite mortgage rates staying relatively high, sales activity remains strong, and with moderate price growth projected throughout 2025, particularly in areas with untapped potential, the outlook for the market remains positive.”
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